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Mapping
Social Cohesion

the scanlon Foundation Surveys

Tracking 12 years of Australia’s largest and longest-running national study on social cohesion, immigration and population issues.

Download the full report Return to main website

2019

summary

A dozen years of data

Researching attitudes to multiculturalism in Australia

This website presents the findings of the 2019 national Mapping Social Cohesion survey.

Commissioned by the Scanlon Foundation Research Institute, this year’s survey marks the twelfth in this series. Its findings build on the knowledge gained through the eleven earlier surveys (2007, 2009-2018) which provide, for the first time in Australia, consistent annual tracking of public opinion on social cohesion, immigration and population issues.

In 2019, in addition to the regular interviewer administered telephone survey, the full questionnaire was also administered on the probability-based Life in Australia™ (LinA) panel. To our knowledge, it is the first major survey on social cohesion that has been conducted simultaneously in interviewer administered and self-administered modes.

This microsite presents highlights of the 2019 survey results. For a closer look at all of the findings, you can download the full report here.

90 questions

65 substantive and 25 demographic.

Two modes of survey used

interviewer administered telephone survey and self-administered via the probability-based Life in AustraliaTM (LinA) panel​.

3,533 respondents

1,500 respondents interviewer administered, 2,033 respondents self-administered.

13 additional questions in the 2019 survey

including three new questions regarding Australia’s foreign relations.

Chapter 1

Demographic context

The Scanlon Foundation’s Mapping Social Cohesion surveys have been conducted during a period of sustained population growth and increasing cultural and ethnic diversity in Australia, as indicated by the 2006 and 2016 census findings.

The Scanlon surveys help us understand how these shifting demographics are impacting Australia’s social cohesion over time.

19.9 million in 2006; ticking over to 25.5 million in 2019

Australia’s population has grown by almost 5.6 million since 2006.

28% of Australians are born overseas

This ranks Australia first within the OECD amongst nations with populations over 10 million.

Population growth has been uneven across Australia

For the year to March 2019, fastest growth was recorded in Victoria, where the population grew by 2.1% (followed by QLD at 1.8% and NSW at 1.4%).

2 million Australians are members of faith-groups other than Christian​

This represents an increase of 84% since 2006.

Factors influencing population growth

Components of annual population growth

There are two components of population growth: natural increase and net overseas migration (NOM), which represents the net gain of immigrants arriving less emigrants departing. Between 1975 and 2005, natural increase accounted for 58% of population growth. Since 2006, net overseas migration has been the major component. NOM accounted for 64% of growth in the year to March 2019​.

According to the ABS:

  • One person is born every 1 minute 46 seconds
  • One death occurs every 3 minutes and 19 seconds
  • One person arrives every 59 seconds
  • One Australian resident leaves every 1 minute and 24 seconds

Where the overseas-born population lives

Population by capital city (2016)

Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane together account for 51% of Australia’s population, 67% of population growth, and 72% of net overseas migration.

Australia’s immigration program

Permanent immigration and long-term visas

Within Australia’s permanent immigration program, the main categories (in order) are Skill, Family and Humanitarian.

In 2018-19 the permanent intake under the Skill and Family streams at 163,000 was the lowest in more than a decade.

In recent years the numbers entering on long-term visas, primarily comprising overseas students, business visa holders, and working holiday makers, have exceeded permanent entrants, a marked change from the previous emphasis on permanent immigration.

Australia’s immigration program

Temporary entrants resident in Australia

A high proportion of the overseas-born in Australia live in capital cities

83%

of the overseas-born population live in capital cities

61%

of the Australian-born population live in capital cities

67%

of the total population live in capital cities

New migrants

Permanent additions to Australia’s population by top ten countries of birth

Australia’s immigrants are increasingly drawn from the Asian region. In 2017-18, of the top ten source countries, seven were in the Asian region, the exceptions being the United Kingdom, South Africa and the United States of America

Religious, cultural and language diversity

Religious affiliation in Australia, 2006, 2016 at the Census

Alongside Australia’s growth in ethnic diversity, members of faith groups other than Christian increased by 84% between 2006 and 2016 – from 1.1 million to 2 million.

Of the estimated population in 2018, the leading overseas-born countries of birth were the United Kingdom (992,000), China (651,000), India (592,000), and New Zealand (568,00)

Download the 2019 Mapping Social Cohesion Report

Download

Chapter 2

Immigration

Immigration was a major political issue In 2018. A number of polls found majority support for a reduction in the intake, in the range of 45%-54% in probability-based polls, 54%-72% in non-probability based.

In 2019, the proportion of population indicating that ​their view of ​‘the number of immigrants accepted into Australia at present’ was ‘too high’ fell marginally to 41% ​(compared to 43% In 2019)​. Recent polling by the Lowy Institute and the Essential Report has also registered lower negativity towards immigration.

In 2019, The Scanlon Foundation survey asked

What do you think of the number of immigrants accepted into Australia?

While opinion on the current intake has fluctuated, general questions on immigration policy continue to obtain a large measure of positive response.

Consistent with previous years, there is majority agreement that accepting migrants from different countries makes Australia stronger, and that multiculturalism has been good for Australia.

53%

of respondents are of the view that the immigration intake was ‘about right’ or ‘too low’.

85%

of respondents agree that multiculturalism has been good for Australia.

63%

agree that accepting migrants from different countries makes Australia stronger.

In 2019, The Scanlon Foundation survey asked if

Accepting immigrants from many different countries makes Australia stronger

While opinion on the current intake has fluctuated, general questions on immigration policy continue to obtain a large measure of positive response.

Consistent with previous years, there is majority agreement that accepting migrants from different countries makes Australia stronger, and that multiculturalism has been good for Australia.

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked if

Multiculturalism has been good for Australia

Concerns over impact of immigration

2019 survey results show a continuing trend of concern around the impact of immigration on quality of life. Negativity around these issues is more pronounced in self-completed online surveys than it is in telephone interviews.

In the telephone survey, majority concern was only obtained in relation to the impact of immigration on ‘overcrowding in cities.’

In the self-completed online survey, a substantial majority of respondents were concerned about the impact of immigration on ‘overcrowding in cities,’‘house prices,’ government failure to ‘manage population growth,’ and immigration’s impact on ‘the environment.’

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked about

Concerns about immigration

Difference across demographics

On key immigration questions, analysis of the aggregated 2018 and 2019 online survey samples shows a marked contrast in the attitudes of highly educated young Australians, aged 18-34, and those aged 65 or above whose highest educational qualification is at the trade or apprenticeship level.

On concern over the impact of immigration on house prices, the environment, and negative view of government management of population growth, there is less than 10% difference between the two age and educational groups.

But there are marked contrasts in response to six of the propositions relating to immigration -- notably on the level of immigration, the value of a diverse immigration intake, and the impact of immigrants on overcrowding.

Attitudes towards immigration, two age groups and highest educational attainment compared

Immigration restriction

Since the abolition of the White Australia policy in 1973, fringe political groups have continued to call for the re-introduction of immigration restriction. But across four years of surveying, there has been a large measure of consistency in the rejection of discrimination in immigration selection based on both race and ethnicity, and religion.

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked

Do you agree or disagree that when a family or individual applies to migrate to Australia, that it should be possible for them to be rejected purely on the basis of their race or ethnicity?

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked

Do you agree or disagree that when a family or individual applies to migrate to Australia, that it should be possible for them to be rejected purely on the basis of their religion?

Combined (‘strongly agree’ and ‘agree’) support for discrimination on the basis of religion in 2019 is at 17-29% across the two survey modes

Combined (‘strongly agree’ and ‘agree’) support for rejecting the entry of certain migrant groups on the basis of ‘race and ethnicity’ remains a minority view in 2019, in the range of 15-23%.

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked if

Do you agree or disagree that when a family or individual applies to migrate to Australia, that it should be possible for them to be rejected simply on the basis of their religion? (by political party)

Within a range of sub-groups considered, majority support for immigration restriction is only found among One Nation supporters.

Download the 2019 Mapping Social Cohesion Report

Download

Chapter 3

Climate and environment

Concern about climate change recorded a major spike in the 2019 survey.

When asked to nominate the most important problem facing Australia, 15 different issues were identified by at least 1% of respondents. Nineteen per cent of people – almost twice as many as last year – nominated climate change. This 9% shift is the equal largest increase in a year for any issue since the surveys began.

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked

What is the most important problem facing Australia today?

Concern across population segments

Concern about the environment was most pronounced in young adults, with 43% of respondents aged 18-24 nominating it as the most important problem facing Australia.

Higher levels of concern for the environment were shared by those who described their financial situation as ‘prosperous’ or ‘very comfortable’ (27%), Greens voters (54%) and those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (24%).

Environmental concern over time

Back in 2011, the environment ranked highly as the most important problem facing Australia at 17%, though 6% of the total 17% were indicating scepticism, or concern about government overreaction to climate change. The level of scepticism has fallen significantly since, indicated by 1% or less of respondents between 2013-2019.

Download the 2019 Mapping Social Cohesion Report

Download

Chapter 4

Government and politics

The Scanlon Foundation’s surveys have tracked attitudes to the functioning of the Australian government since 2007.

The 2019 survey was conducted in July-August, following the May federal election, which saw the return of the Coalition government.

Despite much public discussion about the threat of failing democracy throughout the year, 2019 survey findings point to a stable post-election mood.

Lowering concern over quality of government

When asked about the ‘most important problem facing Australia,’ concern over the quality of government was at the lowest level since the question was first asked in 2011. In 2018 it was nominated by 10%, in 2019 by 6%.

Trust in Government

Trust in the federal government to do the right thing for the Australian people 'almost always` or 'most of the time' fell sharply between 2009 and 2010, from 48% to 31%. It has been at that low level since and did not decline further in 2019 (30%).

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked

How often do you think the government in Canberra can be trusted to do the right thing for the Australian people?

Trust across population segments

Results from previous years have shown a key predictor of trust in government is a person’s support or opposition to the party in power. Accordingly, the 2019 survey showed trust at a level of 49% among Liberal/National party supporters.

Similarly, trust was close to 50% among those who described their financial situation as ‘prosperous’ or ‘very comfortable.’

Trust was lowest among those who described their financial situation as ‘struggling to pay bills’ or ‘poor.’

System of government

Since 2010, the survey has recorded a large measure of consistency – albeit at a relatively low level – in confidence in the political system. The 2019 survey results continue this trend, with the proportion who believe Australian democracy ‘works fine’ or ‘needs minor change’ (58%) similar to previous years.

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked

Would you say the system of government we have in Australia works fine as it is, needs minor change, needs major change, or should be replaced?

Analysis of sub-groups

Analysis of sub-groups indicate a high proportion of those in favour of systemic change among those who intend to vote for ‘One Nation’ (73%); those whose self-described financial status is ‘struggling to pay bills’/’poor’ (65%); and those whose highest completed education is 'Up to Year 11’ (50%).

6%

nominate concern over quality of government as the ‘most important problem facing Australia,’

58%

believe that Australian democracy ‘works fine’ or ‘needs minor change.’

Trust in the federal government to do the right thing for the Australian people 'almost always' or 'most of the time' is at 30%.

Download the 2019 Mapping Social Cohesion Report

Download

Chapter 5

Underlying concerns

Though 2019 findings point to a largely positive outlook, close analysis of Scanlon survey responses over the last decade draw attention to potentially important shifts in opinion.

Long-term perspective

While questions on sense of belonging and happiness continue to obtain positive responses from large majorities, the proportion with strongly held positive views has declined over time.

For example, those who feel a sense of belonging at the highest level (‘to a great extent’) has dropped from 74% to 63% since 2007, with more people now reporting belonging to ‘a moderate extent.’

Positive indicators of social cohesion

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked

To what extent do you have a sense of belonging in Australia?

In 2007, 24% indicated that they expected their lives to be ‘much improved’ over the next three or four years; a lower 17% in 2019.

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked

In three or four years, do you think that your life in Australia will be...?

Globalisation and international affairs

New questions examining attitudes on globalisation and international affairs in 2019 also uncovered emerging issues to be monitored over the coming years.

While a large majority of respondents agreed that ‘growing economic ties between Australia and other countries' is good for Australia (71%), and, from a list of four countries, recognised China as Australia’s most important economic partner today, just 28% had confidence in China doing the right thing regarding Australia’s economic interests.

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked

Are growing economic ties between Australia and other countries, sometimes called globalisation, good or bad for Australia?

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked

Which country do you think is Australia’s most important economic partner?

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked

Which country do you think will have the most influence in the Pacific region in ten years from now?

In 2019, the Scanlon Foundation survey asked

How much confidence do you have in the Chinese/ United States/ Japanese government to do the right thing regarding Australia’s economic interest?’

Negative attitudes and discrimination

There also continues to be a relatively high proportion of respondents who have a negative attitude towards Muslims, with negativity more pronounced in the online survey.

This negative sentiment is reflected consistently by responses to questions regarding occurrences of discrimination. Over the course of the surveys, respondents have been asked if they have experienced discrimination in the last twelve months because of their skin colour, ethnic origin or religion; 42% of Muslims report experience of discrimination, compared to 38% Hindu, 24% Buddhist, and 15% or less of the major Christian faith groups.

Conclusion

Signs of stability

The Social Cohesion Index (SMI)

Every year, the Scanlon Monash Index (SMI) aggregates responses to 18 survey questions, which measure attitudes within the five domains conceptualising social cohesion: belonging, worth, social justice, political participation, and acceptance/rejection.

In 2019 the SMI is at 89.6, almost identical with 2018 (89.7), and close to the level of six of the last seven years, which averaged 89.2 index points.

Signs of stability

While much public discussion in 2019 has focused on problems facing the country, and potential deterioration in quality of life, the 2019 Mapping Social Cohesion survey findings find much evidence of stability (or complacency), although there has been decline in some indicators.

While Australians’ concern about climate change has seen a marked increase over the last twelve months, attitudes on immigration and democracy are largely consistent with findings from the last three years.

The Mapping Social Cohesion survey continues to provide a reference point to understand pattern and extent of change, and of the views held within the mainstream and within minorities.

They make possible the testing of claims about public opinion, and build greater understanding of social cohesion in Australia at a time of continuing population growth and international political uncertainty.

Download the 2019 Mapping Social Cohesion Report

Download